Monday 8 December 2008

divergeance signals slowing momentum


nice area of support at 4600, although I would expect cables to stumble heavily through holiday period, can't rule out sudden probes upwards

can take some time out; or trade the range as forecast in my last entry; dips around 4600 to long and then 5300;

see daily chart pic attached, price trapped in end of wedge... also check JPY pairs for signs of basing at current levels

Friday 21 November 2008

down trend still intact but watching 15M for signs of new upwards break



uptrend from 4556 still intact

pivot also still holding after this mornings up move at 5053

looking for new range to develop between 4556 and resistance starting at 5053-5500+
although still room for another drop, also looking for breakout of long-running down trend

Tuesday 18 November 2008

TIC flows improving

dollar strength from revisions to last TIC figures, placing a negative pit mid September but improving since

Monday 17 November 2008

Tuesday 11 November 2008

simple advice

just found this article on developing a sound trading strategy/practice/method
http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/2008/11/11/a-simple-advice-for-novice-traders/

Monday 27 October 2008

USDCAD short trade

looking at short on USDCAD, and possible reversal play... still should be careful, you can see stop hunting up from 2700 area
UPDATE: CAN CLOSE OR LONG SIGNALS AT 1.1805 AREA

Tuesday 21 October 2008

bear resume

covering at 6990, short to 6800 and 6500

watching for sudden reversal or muddy basing into 6500!!

Friday 17 October 2008

gbp, bit churny

7240 is immediate pivot up/down! still waiting for direction

above that, topping at 390/430 would seal bearishness for medium-term, or bullish continuation on break 390/430
below next level is 7100

Thursday 16 October 2008

for me unclear

ready to short bearish continuation sooner than expected but expect messy basing above 6800

nearest support 7163 penetrated but holding

Wednesday 15 October 2008

Friday 10 October 2008

weekly rep

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.7157; (P) 1.7406; (R1) 1.7552;
next target of 61.8% retracement of 1.3680 to 2.1161 at 1.6538.
above 1.7398 will turn intraday outlook neutral first. But consolidation should be relatively brief as long as 1.7398 resistance holds and recent decline is still expected to resume sooner rather than later.

In the bigger picture, a long term top is in place at 2.1161 and down trend from there is still in progress. Next medium term target is 61.8% retracement of 1.3680 to 2.1161 at 1.6538. The impulsive nature and the scale of the fall from 2.1161 also provides strong evidence to the case of the start of a long term down trend.

Sustained break of 1.6538 will target 1.3681 (01 low). On the upside, above 1.8668 resistance is need to confirm that a medium term bottom is formed. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish and further decline is still expected even in case of stronger than expected rebound.

Thursday 14 August 2008

looking for confirmation of bottom at 8515 area
>>> make buy trades on lows, such as 620 (fb) or 525 (oct06low) and wait and compare weeklies for basing pattern

rebound may go to 9500
9000 seals bearishness, for determining mid-term trough

Monday 28 April 2008

upwards: euro weakness may allow 2.01 only before/if a full eurgbp reversal taking to 2.04

780 holds support/divides

downwards: looking at new base round 600 for long position

Sunday 20 April 2008

bounce from 600-500 or testing lower 337 if not then
up to 2.0 again then down lower, poss 1.92, before reversal allowed by euro

9883-2.0 - lower means h/s top in place, or continuation to 2.01/2.05